Byline.
← Notes · Aug 3, 2026

The most entertaining outcome is the most likely

The most entertaining outcome is the most likely.

Musk has tweeted the line so many times it has its own name now, Musk's Razor.

It reads as a punchline but is a lens on reality. When attention is the scarce resource, whoever holds it for that fraction of a second longer compounds into a winner.

TBPN and TITV have the same newsy content, but TBPN gets all the RTs and captures the feed while TITV sits behind a $400 paywall.

Politics has gone the furthest. Elections have been meme-fied and politicians win on entertainment before they win on work. We've had politicians campaigning with chainsaws. The most powerful man on earth conjures up stuff daily just to stay on top of your news feed.

The most entertaining outcome is the most likely.

Red Bull saw this first, and early. It stopped being a beverage company two decades ago and started dropping people from the edge of space. Liquid Death took the same playbook to water: sells it in a beer can and clears nine figures doing it. Meanwhile Coke spends billions on ads nobody makes memes out of.

The entertaining candidate wins. The entertaining stock rallies. The entertaining company gets covered. The entertaining content is seen, screenshotted, and shared.

The most entertaining outcome is the most likely.