Brand Integrity vs. Brand Competence

This might be the least understood aspect of brand marketing. 🤔 🪄

You don't win by convincing customers you're the best. You win by convincing customers that other customers will think you're the best.

It's called the Keynesian beauty contest, and it explains why certain brands dominate despite having unremarkable products.

Noted economist Keynes observed that successful stock investing isn't about finding companies with the best fundamentals. It's about finding stocks you think others will want to buy. But those others are also trying to predict what everyone else wants. So smart investors end up buying not what's valuable, or even what seems valuable, but what they think others will think others will think is valuable. It's recursion all the way down.

This same recursive logic drives brand value—especially for products consumed publicly.

To test this thesis, I analyzed data from the last 5 Super Bowls, the holy grail of over-priced ads, examining over 250 ad spots. The pattern is striking: 68% of advertisers sell products consumed or displayed publicly—cars, beer, phones, fashion. Only 32% sell private consumption goods like snacks or household cleaners.

Companies aren't randomly paying $7 million for 30 seconds. They're specifically investing in products where everyone knowing that everyone else knows the brand actually creates the value.

The most successful brands understand they're not in the persuasion business. They're in the common knowledge business.

Stop asking "Will customers like this?" Start asking, "Will customers think other customers will like this?"